How to Find Value When Betting on NFL

Betting on sports, and especially the NFL, isn’t like rolling the dice. It is an endeavor that requires you to understand the game and make strategic decisions to be successful. This is because the sport has a lot of factors that influence results, and there are also several wagering options that you need to understand in order to take advantage.

One of the best ways to ensure that you sustain your success is by maximizing your wins and reducing risks as much as possible. This can be done through various methods, and we’ll show you several you can use to find more value in your bets.


Shop for the Best Odds

One of the best ways you can find value is by shopping for the best NFL betting odds. This trick allows you to maximize your returns and reduce the amount of money you risk. The strategy is based on the fact that different sportsbooks offer varied, albeit similar, odds. This means that you can compare three or four bookies to see the one that offers the best odds for a particular bet you’d like to place.

Although the difference won’t be big, it can become quite significant over time. For example, say you want to place a bet on a favorite that has odds of -175 and -168 on bookie X and Y, respectively. If you place $175 on bookie X, you’ll win $100. But on bookie Y, the same wager will give you $103.23. If you consider 50 similar wins throughout the season, you’ll have won $162.5 more with bookie Y.

Do In-Depth Research & Analysis

Research is the best tool that you will need to ensure that you are successful in betting. The minimum basic is that you’ll need to understand how the game works. From there, you can move to the wagers and understand the different NFL betting lines. These include moneyline, point spreads, and over/unders. It’s only after you understand these that you can analyze the various lines to see which offers you more value.

Besides that, you can look at the teams playing. Dive into historical data, such as the head-to-head matchups. Is there a historical advantage for one team over the other? You can then look at performance patterns and key stats and trends, as they can help you identify value when a team is underestimated by the bookie.

Take Advantage of Line Movements

Sportsbooks usually release moneyline bets with about two weeks to go before the game. But within this time, there are usually a lot of odds movements. This can be for several reasons, some being injury updates and weather conditions. Sportsbooks also usually adjust odds to balance their exposure when people are betting overwhelmingly on one side.

These changes in odds over time can present great chances for finding value. For example, when a sportsbook adjusts its odds based on betting patterns, this may create an opportunity for you if your analysis shows that the other team has a chance. You can also try to stay ahead of the sportsbooks by following team news. If a doubtful player becomes available, you can place your bet before the sportsbook adjusts its odds.

Try Prop Bets

Beyond the traditional NFL betting lines, there are lots of other bets you can wager on. One category that can offer you great value is prop bets, otherwise known as proposition bets. These are bets that focus on specific events of a game instead of looking at it as a whole. They include things such as whether a player will score a touchdown, the number of passing yards a quarterback will achieve, or the type of the first goal that will be scored.

If you have a good technical understanding of the game, you can use prop bets to find value. These types of bets usually come with favorable odds as they are a bit tough, but proper analysis can help you come up with a very likely prediction. The extra layer of engagement these bets provide will also keep you on the edge of your seat, adding more thrill to the game.

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